by Cap Alon
Solar Cycle 25 was slow to appear – sunspots were relatively rare – and most solar physicists surprised a recent two-week “null” fit. However, when verifying the official NOAA forecast, it appears that things are going “on schedule”, perhaps even a little earlier; But remember, NOAA expected a historically weak solar cycle 25 – one comparable to Solar Cycle 24 – and the agency’s latest update is unaffected by that.
“The sun is working as we expected – maybe a little better,” says Lisa Upton of the Space Systems Research Foundation, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Committee No. 25 at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) / NASA. “In 2019, the committee has predicted that solar cycle 25 will reach its peak in July 2025 (± 8 months) with a maximum number of sunspots of 115 ± 10. The current behavior of the Sun is consistent with an early onset near the start of the expected range.”
Below it is Provides a sunspot number for the ISES solar cycle Chart: The red curve shows the projected original NOAA sunspot count for solar cycle 25, with the orange curve showing the new best fit.
Note that the new cycle is not looking for anything more powerful, It just has the maximum solar energy that will arrive sooner.
If current trends continue, writes Dr. Tony Phillips spaceweather.comThen SC25 could now reach its peak early in 2024, comparable in strength to the relatively weak cycle (SC24) that preceded it.
“I’m not surprised people are complaining about the SC25 being useless,” says Lisa Upton. “Weak cycles are usually preceded by stretches of clean days, and they are slow to intensify. All of this is in line with our expectations.”
In fact, NOAA has been sticking to their guns for years (saying the SC25 will be comparable to the SC24), but their predictions aren’t too bold, they actually align with the majority of official expectations (there are some outliers: NASA He sees SC25 playing about 30% weaker role than SC24, while a Paper from UK, Published in 2020, that the SC25 will in fact be historically strong).
It is vitally important to remember here that the solar cycle 25 was never the same Larger A cause for concern, because while a historically weak SC24 repetition would further weaken the jet stream, and increase the propagation of the epiphysis and pole propagation (both very bad), it is a solar cycle 26 Where the real horror show is expected to begin: NOAA data reveal, as it is, that there will be no increase in SC26 and all sunspots except zero appear throughout the third decade of the current century – when the cycle approaches its maximum – with the same also true for 1940’s – When the SC27 is awake (click below to learn more about it):
Now the wait begins, continuous Phillips.
As the number of sunspots increases over the next year, forecasters will be able to tell whether a solar cycle of 25 * really * follows the official prediction or does something completely different.
Solar cycle prediction is still an emerging science, and much uncertainty remains; In other words, as with most aspects of modern science, while there is a lot of bragging about the latest technology and highly confident predictions, nobody really knows their backside from the elbow, and only time will tell us …
As a recent example Expensive Fatal mistake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wasn’t even able to predict the weather for the next month – even days before it started. Here are the agency’s forecast for February 2021 (Jan 21) calling for a “warm month coming” across the United States. But as we know, the month was the coldest in February in more than 30 years, with … Children freeze to death in their beds In Texas.
NOAA forecast for February 2021:
Against the reality of February 2021:
He said enough …
The Cold times They come back, mid-latitudes Renewal, In line with Great pairingAnd the Historically low solar activityAnd the Cloud core cosmic rays, And A. Meridian jet stream flow (Among other influencing factors).
NOAA and NASA seem to agree, If you read between the linesWith NOAA saying we’re entering a Minimum ‘full’ grand solar In the late 1920s, NASA saw this next solar cycle (25) Such as “The weakest in the past 200 yearsThe agency linked previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling Here.
Moreover, we cannot ignore the large number of new scientific papers indicating the colossal impact Beaufort Gear It could be on the Gulf Stream, and hence the climate in general.
Prepare accordingly– Learn the facts, and turn if necessary Grow it yourself.